1996 Price Projections for Canadian Libraries (Virginia Roy) ERCELAA@ctrvax.Vanderbilt.Edu 03 Mar 1995 20:02 UTC
Date: Fri, 03 Mar 1995 10:59:28 -0500 From: Virginia Roy - Branch <virginia@FAXON.CA> Subject: 1996 PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR CANADIAN LIBRARIES (fwd) This message has been cross posted to the Faxon Canada Listserv. We apologize for any duplication. While there have already been many pricing forecasts presented, we believe that this is the only one that deals exclusively with the financial issues and factors affecting Canadian libraries. PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS -- 1996 SUBSCRIPTION YEAR Based on the latest information on the publisher price increases, world economic conditions, and both current and projected values of the Canadian dollar, Faxon Canada is projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for 1996 subscriptions. Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current conditions and will be revised as the year progresses. Page Paper/ General Cancel- Currency Total Inflation Postage Inflation lations Changes ______________________________________________________________________________ Cdn Titles 2.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.5% N/A 10.1% US Titles 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% (2.1%) 8.4% Europ. Titles 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% (3.1%) 7.9% Overall Increase 8.4% ______________________________________________________________________________ (Based on a collection made up of 5% Canadian, 20% European and 75% U.S. materials.) The increases detailed in each category above represent the net effect that each component is expected to have on the final subscription price. KEY ASSUMPTIONS PAGE INFLATION: Even with tighter editorial standards, increased manuscript submissions will result in more published pages again next year. PAPER & POSTAGE: After several years of stability, paper prices have sky- rocketed due to very limited inventories. Postal costs have also risen. GENERAL INFLATION: Inflation in both Europe and the U.S. has been accelerating and is expected to continue to rise at moderate levels. CANCELLATIONS: Publishers continue to see increased subscription cancellations and must therefore allocate increasing fixed costs over a shrinking unit base. CURRENCY: During 1994 the Canadian dollar weakened against European currencies and fell over 8 cents against the U.S. dollar. Canada's deficit problems and the political uncertainty in Quebec continue to hinder its improvement. Expectations are that the dollar will gain strength later in the year assuming a "No" vote in the Quebec referendum. The movement of the Canadian dollar is potentially the most significant factor in anticipating publisher price increases since a majority of material purchased in Canada must be paid in a foreign currency. SUMMARY: Expectations of a slightly stronger Canadian dollar lead to the price projection of an 8.4% increase on a typical collection. The price projection for your individual collection will vary based on the proportion of non-Canadian content. March 1995 Faxon Canada P.O. Box 2382 London, Ontario N6A 5A7 1-800-263-2966