On 07Apr2019 1744, Kenneth Barns wrote:

> [In fact, this is the main anomaly trying to draw a comparison with similar
> European events.  Dulinor should have gathered all his forces and marched
> on Capital.  Lucan should have gathered all his forces for a decisive
> battle at a strategically suitable point between Ilelish and Capital.
> Winner takes all.  His opponent de facto loses most of his legitimacy and
> most of his supporters.  Very few historic coup attempts remained
> unresolved for long.]

There were cases in China of the empire being split (likewise in Japan)
for some time (generations) over who was going to run the place. That
said, there's certainly room for argument over whether the Imperium was
really that different from the Civil War period, and whether it should
have just flown apart the way it did. I'm okay with it going that way -
China shows that large apparently content empires can just fly apart
when the centre breaks.

I think also, that when Dulinor fled and denied Lucan a decisive battle,
he made the Imperium's disintegration that much more likely, and then
both of them going all 'total war' over it made it certain, because once
that happened everyone else had to as well, and that got system
governments and populations involved at a level deeper than 'we just pay
our taxes and keep our heads down until it blows over'. Lucan's Black
War merely confirms what the realists already know, and makes it
impossible for all but the most optimistic to deny that the Imperium
isn't reunifying any time soon - destroying infrastructure, making
counter-recovery strikes on worlds that were 'yours' until recently, and
burning out worlds simply because they have a strategic base makes for
hatred that runs too deep to patch over with a political solution.

> Of course, if you were Lucan and you felt that there was a pretty good
> chance of even a cursory Moot investigation finding that you killed Varian,
> what would you do?  Better to put up with a whispering campaign that you
> are "afraid of what the Moot might find", than having to put up with
> conclusive evidence that you did indeed murder your twin!

Indeed. The problem is, if he didn't, everyone who is disposed to
distrust him now assumes he did.

> Once the factions are established with their own power base then, yes,
> Lucan is best letting Margaret run her own domain.  I am not aware that
> Margaret herself ever actually claimed the Throne, or whether she
> officially was just being "a responsible sector duchess looking after her
> fief" (with the hidden implication that she also might be able to claim the
> Throne herself in future).

My recollection is that she put herself up as a compromise candidate,
and argued that the Moot should sort it out.

> The only possible exception I see is that the early death of Margaret, or
> of Lucan, might result in both factions recognising the survivor as the
> rightful Emperor.  It would help if the two factions were on at least
> halfway-decent terms, so that is another reason for "Lucan" to keep things
> civil with "Margaret".  It would also help if Lucan or Margaret did not
> have heirs of their own.

Margaret got heirs by mid-Rebellion, as I recall. My read of the
situation so that she did so fully intending to push their claim.

> If Lucan is the survivor, he inherits Margaret's fleets-in-being (assuming
> the true leaders of "Margaret" let him have them) - the Black War starts up
> again.  If Margaret is the survivor, Dulinor and her might be able to come
> to a negotiated settlement.

Margaret could almost certainly reach a settlement with Dulinor - in
canon she's got a trade deal going with him in the late war, and they're
looking to make a reasonably safe corridor through Diaspora to support that.

> But, a question ...
>
> Assuming Dulinor's Coronation Fleet takes Capital in 1130.  Lucan is
> presumed lost in the fighting, and never seen again.  As I mentioned in my
> original posting, I think Dulinor is now secure, but he has very little
> ability to expand outwards, and might not be able to even hold on to Core
> if it chooses not to recognise him (it IS a fair way from his home base).
> Diplomatically, what do you think might go down between his faction and
> "Margaret" at that point??

I think, given that trade deal and Margaret also has one with the
Solomani, so her faction is economically quite healthy (and like Dulinor
she has a relatively safe rear area), she'd be strong enough to
negotiate a continuation of the status quo with Dulinor, with both sides
agreeing to continue discussions about a reintegration. Dulinor's and
Margaret's factions never fought each other so there's no bad blood or
mega-deaths between them.

> Well, how much of this is realistic, and how much of it is GDW writing
> style?  I just ret-con most of the excesses of Lucan's behaviour to be be
> scuttlebutt coming from those who are not benefiting from being on the good
> side of Lucan's supporters.  Maybe, maybe, some of Lucan's supporters might
> have been a little too enthusiastic at times, and from such happenings
> rumors begin ...
>
> History would say that leaders who actually behaved as erratically AND as
> cruelly as Lucan tended to meet sticky ends within a few years.

Bear in mind that the Rebellion lasted, in canon, from 1116 to 1130 -
fourteen years. It's not so long that it's incredible. Had everything
not come crashing down Lucan would've had to get his house in order or
he'd have been removed, in all likelihood. Had that happened there's
every chance that then, or soon thereafter the Core would've had it's
own little civil war over who got to run it - assuming that Vland,
Dulinor, and/or possibly Margaret didn't swoop into take advantage.

--
Rupert Boleyn <xxxxxx@gmail.com>
Chief Assistant to the Assistant Chief