David,

Here's an anecdote on "omni-channel" marketing.

I developed and own a Cabela's store in Maine. When it first opened 12 years ago Cabela's was relying on their mail-order customers. Each year they would send "members" their "bible" catalog which was two inches thick with a hardcover. Then they would heavily advertise by mail, email, and big promotions. The store I built for them is 117,000sf. It has 300 feet of guns on one wall with nine registers in that area. It has a taxidermy mountain that occupies about 15,000sf, a twelve thousand gallon fish tank, dioramas, and at the time about 8,000 fish poles on display. Their largest store at the time was 250,000sf which was was parked at 10/1 because the average customer visit was just under five hours.

At about the same time as the great recession, store visits slowed (gas prices) and they knew they had to much GLA. They also saw the explosion of internet sales coming. Most of their recently built stores today are 40,000sf. The big change is that on every counter is a computer screen on a swivel. So back in the much reduced fishing pole area, if they were displaying a 6' Ugly Stick and you wanted a 5' Ugly Stick, they show it to you on the computer screen and ask if you want it delivered to the store or to your house tomorrow. While disruptive to their 50 year model, they joined the omni-channel world. (Successfully)

Gene
> On October 3, 2019 at 11:57 AM David White <dwhite@whiteandburke.com> wrote:
>
>
> Gene,
>
>
>
> Thanks for your comments. I agree with your perspective. Let me add that the article, while perhaps statistically accurate as far as it goes, is also misleading in that it examines numbers of stores and fails to look at square footage. It is notable that many of the stores that are closing are large format and the replacement stores are mostly smaller. So I’d guess total occupied retail square footage has decreased substantially. If I’m correct, that decrease is likely one of the causes of the downward trend of rental rates that you cite.
>
>
>
> All that said, I am intrigued by the growing interest among e-commerce retailers in opening brick and mortar stores, so-called “omni-channel” retailing. The jury is out about whether this will prove successful and have staying power, and how much brick and mortar growth it may generate. But it’s worth watching.
>
>
>
> Best,
>
>
>
> David
>
>
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: vtdevelopment@simplelists.com <vtdevelopment@simplelists.com> On Behalf Of GENE BEAUDOIN
> Sent: Friday, September 27, 2019 2:51 PM
> To: Dan Albrecht <dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org>; vtdevelopment@simplelists.com
> Subject: Re: [VT Dev] The ‘retail apocalypse’ is a myth, and that's good news for downtowns
>
>
>
> We needs a Snopes or fact check for this.
>
>
>
> Its really an apocalypse for small to medium size stores. The big stores stores skew the numbers. The are 10,000 Walmarts and Sams Clubs in the US. At 100,000sf each (and that's low average) you quickly get to a billion square feet of retail space. Add 40,000 supermarkets at 40,000sf average and that's another 1,600,000,000 sf of retail space. Then throw in the other large retailers and wholesale clubs and the small stores become a statistical flea on the elephant.
>
>
>
> The actual number of small store closings this year will be closer to 12,000 (UBS). There were 8,000 last year.
>
>
>
> Ask any one in leasing and it is very apparent that demand is off (a lot). I was helping a friend negotiate option periods for the 100 or so drug stores he has. As the leases come due the drug stores don't exercise the option with the rent going up. In fact they insist that their rent to be cut. Usually by 50%. They know their is no alternative credit worthy small store replacements.
>
>
>
> Ask any mall why their value dropped 50% or more in the last ten years. To keep small tenants they need rent reductions or the right to be on month-to-month leases. Month-to-month leases rarely carry any value with appraisers. Mall anchors always paid little or no rent.
>
>
>
> I belong to the International Council of Shopping Centers and have for more than 30 years. The annual national convention used to draw 60,000-70,000 people. Its now down to 30,000 or so and dropping each year with very few retailers in attendance.
>
>
>
> There are retail hot spots. Certain urban centers. But leave the urban center and rents drop precipitously. Leave Greater Burlington for example the rents drop by half before you reach the county line.
>
>
>
> For the centers I own the small store rents are about half of what they were before the great recession.
>
>
>
> So retail apocalypse, not so much. Small retailers closing up shop and paying lower rent is the problem. One of the results I fear is that the remaining larger retailers are monolithic and rarely locate in urban centers.
>
> > On September 27, 2019 at 1:23 PM Dan Albrecht <dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org<mailto:dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org>> wrote:
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Interesting article
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Dan Albrecht, MA, MS
>
> >
>
> > CCRPC Senior Planner
>
> >
>
> > (802) 846-4490 ext. *29
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > From: Public Square: A CNU Journal <communications@cnu.org<mailto:communications@cnu.org>>
>
> > Sent: Friday, September 27, 2019 11:05 AM
>
> > To: Dan Albrecht <dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org<mailto:dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org>>
>
> > Subject: The ‘retail apocalypse’ is a myth, and that's good news for
>
> > downtowns
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The ‘retail apocalypse’ is a myth, and that's good news for the
>
> > shopping industry and downtowns
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > SHARON WOODS
>
> >
>
> > A Google search for the so-called "retail apocalypse" generates more
>
> > than 13 million results, but brick-and-mortar retail is growing. The
>
> > data presents a more confident picture for urban and town planners,
>
> > developers, investors, and merchants. Read more >>
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> >
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> >
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> > To fix suburbs, first define them
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> >
>
> > ROBERT STEUTEVILLE
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> >
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> >
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> > Attracting people and jobs to downtown
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> >
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> >
>
> > ROBERT STEUTEVILLE
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> >
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> > Enhancing New Urbanism through greenway design
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> > RANDALL ARENDT
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> > A new view for Buffalo
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> > LYNN RICHARDS
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> > PUBLIC SQUARE ARCHIVE
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> > 25 great ideas of the New Urbanism
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> >
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> > The New Urbanism is a design movement toward complete, compact, connected communities—but it is also a generator of ideas that transform the landscape. Communities are shaped by the movement and flow of ideas, and the New Urbanism has been a particularly rich source of the currents that have directed planning and development in recent decades.
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