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On Sun, 8/24/14, Greg Chalik <mrg3105@gmail.com> wrote:

 Subject: Re: [TML] expected ship traffic
 To: tml@simplelists.com
 Date: Sunday, August 24, 2014, 8:16 PM

  Greg:

  Length of trade though is not as significant.

 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 Phil:

 Do you mean 'length of time that the trade line has been
 in operation' or the physical distance of the trade
 line?

 My point was that, eventually, here on Earth, many places,
 that were
 dependant upon imported glass, eventually gained the ability
 to produce
 it domestically.

 Now, how long does/did it take for that to happen?

 I see the same process w/i the TU (incl the 3I) *unless* the
 demand is so low that domestic production never happened.

 Hence there is quite a bit of interstellar trade but never a
 high enough volume to require MT's massive bulk
 haulers.
 ===============================================

Greg:
 Length of time.

 Lets consider
 some other commodity like porcelain.

 By the late-19th century
 England had a wonderful porcelain industry going, and
 exporting, etc. having stolen some production innovations
 from the Chinese.
 Inexplicably the Japanese pottery
 became an artistic 'rage'. Nothing English
 manufacturers could do would 'shake it'. Some went
 out of business, others joined in.

 My point -
 economics is not a rational 'business', and is not
 'scientific'.
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Phil:

OK, so in your porcelain example trade volume would fluctuate over time.
But I still maintain that it would never reach the astronomical volume necessary to require those MT gargantuans.

I do agree with you the irrationality of economics.

 ================================================================================================

  Greg:

  Are you are

  referring to the present day Murano manufacture? Would

  anyone even know what glass is several thousand years
 from

  now outside of archaeologists and art historians?

  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 Phil:

 Well, the analogy would work better if specific individual
 products aren't specified.

 (The 'glass' example was NOT introduced by me,
 BTW.)

 My position is that once volume of a particular product
 reaches a
 certain 'tipping' point, then in-system production
 would supplant it.

 And, that point would be low enough that MT's massive
 CIVILIAN bulk transports would not exist.

 Now, that doesn't preclude giant MILITARY vessels of all
 kinds as they
 serve a completely different purpose than the civilian
 ones.
 ====================================================

Greg:
 Ok, but how would that explain the
 consistent growth in the size of commercial cargo and
 passenger vessels while military vessels on average (outside
 of the US aircraft carriers) declined in size?

 I have a friend who designs
 yachts for a living. These are about the size of an 18th
 century 3rd rate warship! At the time, a yacht was a
 single-mast pleasure craft rarely meant to take more than
 six passengers/crew.
 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Phil;

Consistent over how long a period of time?

The military vessels are, of course, responding to military/political requirements.
In fact, the CT 'Fighting Ships' supplement, it's mentioned that BB's have been getting smaller in the 3I.
Tigress's (500kTons) are not produced anymore, while current designs seem to favor 200kTons.
Also, the popularity of tenders/battleriders vs BB's has fluctuated over time.

 The commercial vessels are responding to commercial requirements.

Those requirements, while similar, are not necessarily the same in the TU or 3I.

 =========================================================

  Greg:

  Ok, so moving

  people, and there was once and may be again such a
 trade,

  had to be moved as bio-cargo. And?

  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 Phil:

 I have the impression that you may be thinking that I am
 referring to a sort of 'slave trade' but I am
 not.

 I am referring to the periodic transfer of personnel &
 dependants
 (even whole households for the 'higher-ups'?) that
 any large military,
 governmental, or civilian organisation would routinely
 make.

 This would require a large number of 'liner' type
 starships & since
 all the CT designs I've seen can also carry a small but
 significant
 amount of cargo, they would be transporting some cargo as
 along all
 those people.

 Side Note: My father was a USAAF/USAF pilot & I grew up
 'in' that
 system. Typically, every three years, my family was uprooted
 &
 shifted, lock, stock, & barrel, anywhere from 100's
 of miles to 1/2
 was around the world. Every summer, cuz that was when there
 was no
 school, there was a massive flurry of activity at the
 airfield as
 families came and went. While the bulk of this was dome
 during the
 summer 'break' from school, it actually went on all
 year long, esp when
 dealing w/ personnel w/o dependents, or other
 considerations. (sometimes
  families were moved in the middle of the school year).
=======================================================

Greg:

 It doesn't matter if the
 population was shifted willingly or not - the important
 factor is volume.

 By the way, just in case people have a moral problem with
 slavery, consider the slave's alternative. In Africa,
 unless you were a fairly young woman AND the victorious
 tribe could muster the resources to support you, you would
 be 'adopted'. Everyone else were killed, and some
 eaten. Slavery at least offered some chance of survival.

 Moving
 people about by the US DoD is not something I find
 particularly wise from my current work point of view where
 all the people I need to deal with are relative amateurs
 despite senior ranks.
 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Phil:

Yes, volume is important & that's my point.
I believe there would be a lot of passenger traffic in the TU.

I can see a lot of personnel transfers w/i the 3I & even outside it too.
(Zhodani Core Expeditions, for example)

 Whether it's 'wise' or not is bound to rely upon subjective values but it is happening now, will continue for the foreseeable future & I believe it's reasonable to expect it to occur in the TU.

 ===============================================================

  Greg:

  The size of the 'Trader' vessel is entirely
 relative

  to the cargo. Ever tried to deliver the hull of a
 combat

  cruiser elsewhere for the fitting of engines? Original

  engines 'melted' due to accident, so the

  'job' was delivery of salvage for a refit. There
 are

  not a lot of systems that can supply engines like that
 on

  short notice you know.

 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 Phil:

 Military 'Jump Tugs' would satisfy that need if the
 hull were to be 'towed' to the nearest naval
 base/shipyard.

 Alternatively, a military 'tender' capable of
 performing the repairs
 might be dispatched. (similar to the 'tenders'
 &, or the 'floating
 drydocks' the USN has used)

 Note: I've never disputed the military's need for
 massive starships.
==========================================

Greg:

 Military
 tenders usually operate with fleets.
 'jump
 Tugs'? Perhaps worthy of a separate thread as I would
 love to know how one constructs such a thing.

 In the adventure above
 (many years ago) we went and found a ship about the right
 size to pull the mass + 20%. Than we had the ship stripped
 of everything not essential and sold that off to get some
 Cr. to enter the bid tender with the Military. Our
 'ship' now just the 20% of its former self was than
 jumped to the location of the salvage, at which point the
 adventure just got started (again) [another story]

 It seems
 to me that massive military starships come from the
 'because we can' rules.
 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Phil:

The term 'tug' was a figure of speech.
I think you know what I mean.

Sure, they appeared w/ the CT 'High Guard' LBB.

And they were undoubtedly influenced by the 'rule of cool'.
Not to mention the 'really big' starships from StarWars.

 ============================================================